'Captain Marvel'Walt Disney
Captain Marvel topped the box office for the second Friday of its domestic run, earning $19 million and bringing its domestic cume up to $215m in just eight days. That's a 69% drop from its $61.9m opening day (including Thursday previews). Bawdy jokes aside, that's an exceptionally boring drop, neither a super-strong hold nor a catastrophic fall. It's exactly in line with most big-scale comic book movies and big-scale fantasy actioners these days, such as The Hunger Games (-71%), Rogue One (-65%), Logan (-70%), Venom (-69%), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-70%) and Avengers: Infinity War (-70%). The likely $70m second weekend will be the second-biggest second-weekend in March, behind Beauty and the Beast's $90m second-weekend-gross in 2017 following a record $174m debut weekend.
Yes, the $150 million-budgeted MCU movie has already crossed $200m domestic and it has passed (or will pass today) the unadjusted-for-inflation totals of Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202m), Thor: The Dark World ($206m), Venom ($212m), Solo ($214m), Ant-Man and the Wasp ($215m), Justice League ($229m), Doctor Strange ($232m). Presuming an over/under $70m (-53%) second weekend, the Brie Larson/Samuel L. Jackson/Reggie the Cat action fantasy will have earned $267m in ten days of domestic release, putting it above the likes of The Amazing Spider-Man ($262m) and Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259m). At this point, it looks like Captain Marvel will top $400m domestic. Whether it finishes closer to Iron Man 3 ($409m) or Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459m) will be decided over the next couple of weeks.
And it's continuing to do its thing overseas as well. I don't have updates beyond yesterday, but even with an expectedly steep drop in China (-75% for a $22 million second weekend and a likely $150m finish), the film has passed $600m worldwide as of yesterday and may crack $700m today and pass $750m global tomorrow. It will, today or tomorrow, pass the $692m global cume of China's The Wandering Earth to become the year's biggest global grosser. With the presumption that Avengers: Endgame is next in line, we'll see if any other movies (especially any non-Disney titles) can get anywhere near wherever Captain Marvel ends up. $1 billion-plus almost a guarantee, but ask me again tomorrow just to be safe.
Nonetheless, let's not weep too hard if it drops next weekend and ends up with Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug numbers. This is already a big win for all invested parties whether or not it matches Captain America: Civil War in North America or worldwide ($409 million/$1.15 billion). The movie cost "just" $150m, so it's already making money, while Larson's crowd-pleasing star turn will only make Avengers: Endgame that much more of a big deal in six weeks. So, yes, Marvel can open a solo superhero movie with a new hero to numbers approximating the biggest of the sub-genre. That's a huge deal for the brand going forward as they plan to introduce a slew of new characters over the next few years.
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