The math loves the nomination chances for A Star Is Born, Green Book, Roma and BlacKkKlansman, and why shouldn’t it? With Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTA, and a host of other nominations for this quartet, they all can rest easy going into Tuesday. The Favourite is almost as safe, with just over a nine in ten shot of making the list of nominees, thanks to its leading 12 BAFTA nominations over in London.
In the middle tier we have Black Panther, Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk and Bohemian Rhapsody, all of which took different paths to this spot. Black Panther is the year’s most popular film, trying to recreate Titanic or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King’s path to the throne. Vice scored a Directors Guild nomination. If Beale Street Could Talk is the adapted screenplay favorite with its sights set on an even bigger category. And Bohemian Rhapsody pulled off that Golden Globes stunner.
If only nine films make the cut — as happened each of the last two years — the others on this list might be out of luck. But A Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns, Crazy Rich Asians and First Man aren’t completely out of the running, with all of them having between 10 percent and 20 percent chance of hearing their name called. These movies are hoping for either a 10-nominee list or to knock out one of the more favored films higher on the chart.
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